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Barclays: The European Central Bank may choose to lower interest rates in December.
On August 4, Jin10 reported that Barclays currently believes that the European Central Bank may choose to cut interest rates once in December, rather than the previously predicted September cut. The bank's economist Mariano Sinna stated that this revision takes into account the weakening economic activity in the second half of the year, caused by the ongoing drag of trade policies and the impact of earlier imports by the United States. Barclays expects that by December, signals regarding trade headwinds will become clearer, and concerns about the impact of supply chain disruptions on inflation will also diminish. Additionally, confidence that the fiscal plan for 2026 will not reignite inflationary pressures may increase, supporting a rate cut of 25 basis points. Barclays expects that by 2026, the European Central Bank's terminal deposit rate will remain at 1.75%.