Reflection on Hong Kong Web3 Carnival: Industry Status and Future Outlook

The Hong Kong Web3 Carnival left a rather desolate impression. Compared to the bustling scenes of previous years, this event was noticeably quieter. The exhibition floor was mostly filled with familiar project teams, the VIP room was vacant, and the number of visitors was sparse. This sense of desolation may stem from issues with the venue layout, or perhaps from inadequate preparations leading to difficulties in inviting guests and a shortage of project teams. Some presentations felt more like a way to prove that they were "still alive."

It is worth noting that the number of Western faces has significantly decreased. Even with the presence of Ethereum's founder, aside from fan selfies, there are more people questioning the development of the industry. This reflects the cultural and pursuit differences that still exist between the East and the West. Some people treat the achievements of Web3 technology as a casino, influencing the overall direction through short-term gains from each cycle, which is far from the original intention of the builders.

This year's mainstream narrative is RWA (Real World Assets), but it is fundamentally not much different from the hot topics of the past few years, such as NFTs, inscriptions, and memes. Macro narratives often overlook individual rights, while grasping the mainstream narrative can indeed lead to growth, as demonstrated by the successful cases of Phantom and Bitget. However, the real challenge lies in user retention, not just growth.

The founder of Ethereum, V, is facing a difficult choice. He is young and talented, working hard and bringing unlimited potential for the future of Ethereum. However, being 30 also means he can be easily misled. In his speech, V is fully betting on L2, which has its rationale, but it may also bring new problems, such as how to bridge the gap between L2s.

The Web3 gaming sector, though unwilling, still faces difficulties. Factors such as the control of game licenses, which were once seen as opportunities for explosive growth, have not brought the expected results. From "play to earn" to on-chain games, and then to telegram games, all have become traps. The crypto space may be better suited for focusing on the financial sector rather than game development.

Discussions about the arrival of a bear market are still ongoing. Those who have experienced market cycles know that a bear market is actually an opportunity for builders. Although there has been significant investment in areas such as DeFi, NFTs, and the metaverse, what is truly being widely used at present are stablecoins and related trading. In the new investment cycle, institutions have taken over the market, posing challenges for small entrepreneurial ideas.

Looking to the future, opportunities may lie with products that can discern needs and teams that are proficient in underlying technologies. While cryptography faces bottlenecks, the user interaction objects are breaking through limitations. Many behaviors in the real world are difficult to prove with cryptography, and not all problems can be solved with decentralization. The future may require a mutual compromise between centralization and decentralization.

Finally, some disappointment in the industry stems from overly high expectations in the early days. If we view Web3 as Crypto Finance 3.0, it may be more rational. What truly deserves attention are those who excel in their core responsibilities. The market is shifting from "market dream rate" to "market share," pursuing products that genuinely meet user needs, have cash flow, and a business model. This transformation is worth looking forward to.