⚡️ 1. Policy Shockwave: The Restructuring Effect of Pension Funds Entering the Market

Historic breakthrough in funding channels
Trump signed an executive order allowing approximately $8.7 trillion in 401(k) retirement accounts to invest in cryptocurrencies, private equity, and other alternative assets, breaking nearly 50 years of restrictions that limited retirement funds to traditional stocks and bonds. This move opens a long-term institutional funding channel for Bitcoin, with potential impacts far exceeding that of spot ETFs—if just 1% of the 401(k) funds allocate to Bitcoin, it could bring about $87 billion in new demand (equivalent to 748,000 BTC).
Political momentum and regulatory loosening
The implementation of the policy requires the Labor Department to revise the regulations of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act within six months and to establish a cross-departmental collaboration mechanism with the SEC. The Trump administration has formed a "policy toolbox": from signing the GENIUS Act to regulate stablecoins, promoting the SEC to simplify DeFi rules, to this pension reform, systematically lowering the threshold for allocating crypto assets. The reduction of regulatory uncertainty provides institutional guarantees for capital inflows.
Potential friction in the implementation process
Despite the clear policy direction, specific execution faces resistance:
Product design bottleneck: Retirement accounts need to indirectly allocate Bitcoin through "packaged funds" (such as BlackRock's target date fund planning allocating 5%-20% to alternative assets) instead of holding it directly, which may dilute returns.
Fiduciary Responsibility Disputes: Pension fund managers are concerned that high-volatility assets may lead to legal disputes, and may prefer conservative allocations.
Political cycle risk: If there is a change in government, similar policies that were revoked during the Biden administration may be reinstated.

📈 2. Market Propeller: Strengthening Signal of BTC's Own Cycle
Halving effect and scarcity narrative
After the halving in April 2024, the block reward will be reduced to 3.125 BTC, and new supply will continue to tighten. Historical data shows that 12-18 months after a halving typically enters a major bull market (for example, after the 2020 halving, prices surged over 650%). The current circulation is only 19.6 million coins, and the long-term deflationary model resonates with the incremental demand from retirement funds.
Interest rate environment and capital rotation
The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle has begun (from the end of 2024 to now), weakening the appeal of bonds and driving funds towards high-growth assets. The "alternative correlation" between Bitcoin and gold has strengthened—gold recently reached a new high of $3500 per ounce. If BTC replicates its momentum curve, the target for 2025 could reach $220,000 to $250,000.
Technical resilience support
Key support level: $60,000 has become the "new bottom", and has not been effectively broken during multiple pullbacks in 2025, forming a strong psychological defense line.
Volatility Convergence: The derivatives market's open interest is leaning neutral, and after the short-term profit-taking pressure is released, it is poised for a breakout.

⚠️ 3. Risk Warning Light: Uncontrollable Variables in a Highly Volatile Market
The "Double-Edged Sword Effect" of Pension
Liquidity Mismatch Risk: 401(k) funds need to respond to retirement withdrawal demands, but during a Bitcoin crash (such as a single-day drop exceeding 20%), there may be forced selling that exacerbates the downturn.
Public Opinion Backlash: Economist Peter Schiff warns that ordinary investors lack risk awareness, and potential losses could trigger political accountability, forcing policy reversals.
Macroeconomic disturbances
Tariff Shock: Trump's imposition of 10%-50% tariffs on multiple countries raises concerns of "stagflation" and puts pressure on risk assets.
Weak employment data: Unemployment claims rose to 1.97 million in July. If signals of an economic recession strengthen, Bitcoin may adjust in sync with U.S. stocks.
The implementation of technology and regulatory enforcement is poor.
If the SEC delays the approval of pension products or sets a too low allocation ratio (e.g., <3%), the policy benefits will be diluted.

📊 4. Trend Projection: Scenario Path for the Second Half of 2025
Scenario Driven Logic Price Range Probability
Optimistic breakthrough Pension rules exceed expectations for easing + Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again in September + Bitcoin breaks $120,000 triggering FOMO $150,000-$220,000 35%
Consolidation rising Allocation ratio limit (e.g., ≤5%) + Economic data fluctuations, slow capital inflow $100,000 - $140,000 50%
Pessimistic correction Geopolitical conflict escalation + Pension litigation risk fermentation + Bitcoin ETF fund outflow $60,000-$80,000 15%
💎 Note: Price anchor point refers to the gold model, halving cycle 6, and policy sensitivity analysis.

💎 Conclusion: The Rebalancing Window of Policy and Fundamentals
In the second half of 2025, Bitcoin is in a tug-of-war stage between "liquidity injection expectations" and "risk premium correction:"
Short term (August-September): Dominated by the progress of pension regulations. If the Labor Department releases easing signals, it may drive BTC to test the previous high of $120,000.
Mid-term (October to December): The focus shifts to the actual subscription scale of the 401(k) product and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. If the capital flow velocity is lower than expected, it may test the $80,000 support level. biya is a global multi-asset trading wallet that allows easy exchange of mainstream fiat currencies for digital currencies. It also provides convenient withdrawal solutions, effectively addressing frozen accounts and capital withdrawals. Users can easily trade and withdraw through the U platform.
⏳ Core Observations: Progress on the Labor Department’s regulatory amendments (Q4 2025), September Federal Reserve interest rate decision, weekly fund flow data for Bitcoin ETF. The market needs to be cautious of the correction in expectations after the policy dividends are overestimated, but in the long run, the entry of retirement funds into the market signifies an irreversible advancement of Bitcoin towards becoming a "quasi-sovereign reserve asset."

(Personal analysis, not investment advice, please view rationally)